Courtesy of The Grio

Voters under 30 may turn out in much smaller numbers than in 2008, according to an analysis by a well-respected electoral expert, a major potential threat to President Obama’s prospects for winning next fall.

In a report on Wednesday, Curtis Gans, director of the Washington-based Center for the American Electorate, predicted voter turnout overall (as a percentage of the eligible voting population) would be lower than in 2008 or 2004. He argued those two elections fired up voters, particularly Democrats, in a way neither party will in 2012.

But he highlighted a “substantial drop-off in the level of youth participation” in 2012 as a likely outcome of the last three years.

“Because Obama the president did not fulfill the hope invested in Obama the candidate, there has been an enormous sense of disappointment among those young who had been previously politically active and the current crop of college-resident young do not have the same compelling motivation to engage as those who preceded them,” Gans wrote.

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